National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
303am EDT Wednesday Jun 5 2024
Synopsis
A weak front near the Albemarle Sound will lift north overnight while high pressure remains off the Southeast coast through Wednesday. A strong cold front will approach from the west Thursday and move through Friday bringing slightly cooler and drier conditions over the weekend. Another frontal system will likely impact the area early next week.
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... As of 1am Wed...No significant changes to the forecast on this update as there will remain an isolated threat for a few showers and maybe a rumble of thunder through daybreak across ENC. Otherwise expecting generally muggy and warm conditions tonight as a weak backdoor cold front eventually begins to lift north as a warm front.
Prev Disc...Upper ridging continues over the Eastern Seaboard with surface high pressure residing off the Southeast Coast. A weak backdoor front that pushed into NE sections of the FA today is already beginning to dissipate/retreat back northward evident by winds veering to S to SE. Isolated showers/thunderstorms that occurred across the area this afternoon have for the most part dissipated as we lose daytime heating but still seeing isolated showers across the western Albemarle Sound in the vicinity of the aforementioned remnant front. Expect mainly dry conditions overnight but several models do show isolated showers which could develop along lingering boundaries as a moist and conditionally unstable environment persists across the area, so will maintain slt chance Probability of Precipitation across portion of the area, mainly north of highway 70. It will be a warm muggy night with lows around 70.
.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 4pm Tuesday...Guidance continues to trend drier, so PoPs have been cut back once again. Like today, any shower or thunderstorm development will be isolated to widely scattered with a low but non-zero severe threat. MLCAPE will be marginal (500-1000 J/kg) but winds will respond to the incoming upper- level trough and create slightly better shear today (20-25 kt). Temps will be toasty with highs around 90 across the coastal plain and mid-80s along the OBX.
Long Term - Thursday Through Tuesday
As of 3am Wed...Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected Thursday and Thursday night ahead of a cold front. The front will move through Friday. Mostly dry with more comfortable temps expected this weekend. Another frontal system will likely impact the area early next week with increasing rain chances.
Thursday...Still looks like an active day as upper trough and strong cold front approach the area. Sct showers and iso tstm potential in the morning, with chances increasing through the day with better forcing and moisture ahead of the front. Similar to the last few days, will be moist and unstable though weak shear will continue to limit the overall svr threat. However, an isolated strong storm with gusty winds and small hail will be possible. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will approach 2 inches for most of the area, so moderate to locally heavy rain also possible. An increase in heat and humidity is also likely as highs climb into the upper 80s to low 90s, and it will feel like 95-100 degrees for most of the area when factoring in the humidity.
Friday through Sunday
The front will move through Friday. Isolated showers and storms may linger along the coast through the day, with seabreeze likely pinned in the afternoon and weak boundary in the vicinity. Upper troughing becomes more zonal along the east coast through the weekend with weak high pressure building in, depicting drier and slightly cooler conditions across eastern NC. A more comfortable airmass expected over the weekend with dewpoints falling into the 50s and 60s and high temps in the 80s.
Monday and Tuesday...Still a high amount of uncertainty early next week, with the potential for another frontal system to impact the area. The GFS (Global Forecast System) is the more progressive model pushing a front through Sunday night/early Mon, while the EC is the slower/stronger/wetter solution. Will continue to cap probability of precipitation at chance given the uncertainty.
Marine
Short Term - Through Tonight
As of 845pm Tuesday...A weak front across the northern waters is dissipating/retreating back northward this evening while surface high pressure remains off the Southeast Coast. S to SW winds around 5-15 kt across most waters this evening, except northern waters where SE winds will persist for a few more hours before veering to S and SW overnight. SW winds begin to increase to around 10-20 kt Wednesday afternoon as gradients begin to tighten in advance of a cold front and could see some gusts to around 25 kt. Seas mainly 1-2 ft tonight will build to 2-3 ft Wednesday.
Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
As of 3am Wed...Gradient will continue to tighten Thursday ahead of a cold front. SW winds will increase to 15-25 kt with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions likely for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound through Thu night. Will be marginal for the Albemarle Sound, but SCA (Small Craft Advisory) may need to be extended. The cold front will move through Friday and Friday night, with gradient relaxing and winds becoming WSW 10-15 kt. Light to moderate NNW- WNW winds Sat 5-15 kt. Moderate SW flow returns Sunday ahead of another cold front. Seas will build to building to 3-6 ft Thursday, subsiding to 2-4 ft Fri and cont into the weekend.
More uncertainty early next week with potential for another frontal system to impact the area. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions possible.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None.
Marine
None.
